Qilu Securities 2008 Investment Conference on January 6 was held in Qingdao, Gong Yu, deputy director of the Institute of Qilu Securities pine outlook for investors in 2008 at the macro-economic themes, and detailed interpretation of the Qilu Securities optimistic about key industries in 2008 and stocks. The following statement is the focus of Gong Yu Song Record.
07 years of industry rose Golden
2007 forward five years of the bull market, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 96.6%, Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 (5483.650,61.62, 1.14%, the stock right) index rose 161.55%, Shenzhen Component Index rose 166.29 percent. among the biggest gainers in the sector were: precious metal ore mining industry, the aviation industry, glass and glass products, coal, chemical fertilizer and so on. coal, nonferrous metals, aviation, securities, real estate, which should Five Golden Flowers.
08 several themes or events the largest industry
1. Olympics. affect the industry much, but the impact of a long time. The main benefit of the industry tourism, aviation, marketing, media, beverage.
2. RMB appreciation, affect the industry more, and longer. have a positive impact of real estate, finance, paper, aviation, oil refining, smelting, the negative impact of is mainly export-oriented enterprises, such as textile, shipping.
3. energy saving and emission reduction, elimination of backward production capacity, affect the industry more, and longer, the affected industries are: power, steel, paper, aluminum , talking, cement, glass, calcium carbide, ferroalloy and so on.
4. inflation, the benefit of the retail industry, medicine, food and beverage, catering, tourism, agriculture and so on.
5. two tax merger is not sunny affect many different industries. retail, real estate, banking, telecommunications, oil, roads and so on.
6. consumption upgrade, I think it reflects the health and comfort of the concept, and now many people optimistic about the high-end liquor, benefit comparison high real estate, automotive, tourism, wine, Seafood, upscale department stores, telecommunications, home appliances, medicine and so on.
7. stock index futures, a great impact on weight, and heavyweight mainly in finance, energy, real estate and steel industries, which stock index futures greater impact on the industry indirectly.
08-year forecast earnings of the fastest growing industries
07 年 1m10 month profit growth in the industry, chemical fiber, the recent strong chemical stocks go behind the rapid growth of industry profits because of the factors, iron and steel also grew faster, 63% increase in building materials, equipment, manufacturing also like .08 earnings forecast what the fastest growing industries? I think the real estate shipping, one aviation, tourism, banking, beverage, petroleum, chemical, paper, appliances machines.
2008 of the most promising industry
I think the rally,UGG boots clearance, the valuations are high, the stock is difficult election. industry is also difficult to choose, choose the industry even more difficult to stock selection. but we believe that part of the whole industry is overvalued undervalued under the rare plate, hold the large investment opportunities, the industry is a continuous act, the industry through the effective allocation is still expected to receive excess returns.
my most optimistic about the industry, real estate, banking, petrochemicals, shipping, non-ferrous metals, the tourism industry. everyone to see what are the characteristics of these industries do? In addition to travel, the more cyclical sectors, which reflects my personal preference, or one of my idea to involve the problem of understanding of the industry cycle.
defense industry who perform a large market hard
steady growth in defense industry and investment industry is certainly the Vampire Slayer Master and domestic parts of the organization special favorites, but the need to have a reasonable valuation levels have even underestimated the margin of safety on this premise, or to not defensive at all. now that defense industries in China and stable growth industry, no growth prominent, valuation levels are high above, like the Guizhou Moutai (215.24,1.09,0.51%, the stock it), Wuliangye (45.11, -0.75, -1.64%, the stock it) and other leading food and beverage company PE were more than 100 times, like revival to continue to perform a large market, it is difficult!
the other hand, those plain cyclical industries, key enterprises as the struts and the national economy, contributing over 80% of the total listed companies in the amount.
2008 of the most promising Stock
Vanke A (29.24,0.75,2.63%, the stock it), Huafa (40.86,1.52,3.86%, the stock it), CITIC Guoan (38.50, -0.45, -1.16%, the stock it), in the sea oil services (36.36,0.17,0.47%, the stock it), China Merchants ships, off Al shares (33.44,3.04,10.00%, the stock it). This is my personal favored, the possibility of better performance in 2008, We'll see.
1. the real estate industry fell out of the big opportunities mm
the plate in 2007 ran up a broader market, up 145%, is expected to grow 60% next year, the static price-earnings ratio is high, but the dynamic price-earnings ratio the fastest decline in all sectors, the minimum dynamic price-earnings ratio, especially in the high-quality dynamic price-earnings ratio is only 20 times the company.
first, 07 significant earnings growth in the real estate industry, the second house prices hit record highs, causing severe regulation, the third long-term bullish real estate industry. Many are optimistic about the real estate stocks, I personally prefer the real estate that it will be long-term rise, because by the impact of regulation, there has been a slight price decline, trading volume volatility, I think that does not affect short-term fluctuations, as to help drivers like RMB appreciation, there is still excess liquidity, etc., so it is conducive to rising real estate.
on the macro-control, I think that is conducive to enterprise-wide winning,cheap UGG boots, the real estate industry is a pillar industry of our country, so the control of dominant enterprises will bring opportunities for the regulation is, of course, so I think Vanke recent correction in the real estate industry, there are losses, but more long term Vanke strong, get more. Huafa intact in the regulation, the city of Zhuhai is no price bubble, house prices in more than 7,000 dollars, and the living environment of more and more Zhuhai recognition by the people. some of the commercial real estate is for development.
future industry differentiation is inevitable, the selection can only win, in view of future large companies, high-quality companies in the industry will be fully adjusted in the win, so we should be concerned that the financing capacity and brand awareness, widely accepted by the market Whitehorse real estate stocks, and a strong background of major shareholders, future funding or the whole concept of listed companies to the industry recommended rating.
focus on the following companies: China Vanke, Huafa, OCT, Chinese enterprises (22.84,0.47,2.10% stock it), Financial Street (30.49,0.31,1.03%, the stock it). I think the quality of Vanke's house is the best built, built in Zhuhai Huafa house is the best. This is my room focus on the real estate.
the focus of the real estate industry is regulated, although the steady flow of real estate control policies, each large fluctuations have become rare investment focus, I think I was optimistic about the real estate industry.
2. expect oil shipping industry, shipping industry, the spring mm.
dry bulk, container, oil shipping in the three sub-sectors most promising oil transport, and why? My reason is that, first of China's continuing dependence on foreign oil increase in oil fortunes second country policies, constitute a strong policy support and a rare opportunity. Third, the oil shipping industry may be recovering ahead of schedule, and 11 since mid-tanker shipping industry indicates a strong rebound in the spring around the corner. Once a full recovery , the peak oil transport companies will usher in earnings, I am optimistic about investment vessels, long CAO Yun, China Shipping Development (38.30,1.21,3.26%, the stock it).
3. the tourism industry the biggest beneficiaries of the Olympic economy mm
Just now Mr. Chen Jian, as economic experts has made it very exciting Olympics, I will not say more, and I think that the tourism industry is the biggest beneficiaries of the Olympic economy.
08 Travel Industry has two main themes, one is the consumption upgrade, One is the Olympic economy, focusing on the following companies: Shoulvgufen (50.80, -1.03, -1.99%, the stock right) CYTS (35.97, -0.32, -0.88%, the stock it), barren hills and tourism, Guilin tourism (24.30 , 0.12,0.50%, the stock it).
4. Petroleum and Chemical Industry mm big business, there are big opportunities to
I am optimistic about this industry sub-sectors of oil, oil prices are a new high in 2007, and three major oil companies profits are huge, breakthrough hundred dollars is no longer in suspense, if domestic prices of refined oil a breakthrough in 2008, oil companies dramatically increased earnings. Therefore, we focus on: COSL (36.36,0.17, 0.47%, the stock it), Sinopec (23.80,0.02,0.08%, the stock it), China Petroleum (31.31,0.23,0.74%, the stock it). Once the oil next year, especially in the second half of inflation, oil refining industry profitability, Sinopec will significantly increase efficiency.
potash industry is the second industry, a serious shortage of potash fertilizer in China, over 70% of import dependence. the international potash industry and agriculture demand a high degree of monopoly continued increased, leading to rising prices of potash, 2008 will continue to rise, long term bullish on the industry. I Recommend CITIC Guoan (38.50, -0.45, -1.16%, the stock it), complete with their supporting facilities, and its output is substantially increased. CITIC Guoan expect the highest magnesium carbonate project, gross profit margin is high, if maintained at 50 000 per ton, CITIC Guoan explosive growth in the future. I expect the results of a few cents, next year a few dollars, if the years after the project is progressing well, will reach more than ten dollars, just like the same vintage of wine. The other two fertilizer companies, Guannonggufen (48.96,0.43,0.89%, the stock it), Salt Lake shares.
coal chemical industry is the third, I will not say, and the relatively recent hot plate, there are soaring, or in 30% m40%. worthy of our long-term concern.
5. mm non-ferrous metals industry, aluminum industry
last year to look forward to is a big increase in this industry, in 2008 I think the shortage of resources, revaluation and depreciation of the dollar, could increase $ 1,000, it is possible. copper is essential to stabilize in the second quarter shopping season breeding large rally could try $ 8,000.
lead prices are expected to perform in 08 brilliant 07, 08 foreign investment bank, rose 4% forecast, with the great development of electric bicycles strong demand for lead-acid battery related.
tin prices high and volatile, there is the possibility of a new high, mainly due to its scarcity and high industry concentration.
but my primary aluminum and the most promising is the processing industry, for prices have been stung volts for two years, this wave great bull market began in 2003 in the smallest increase of metal species, aluminum and zinc, lead prices about the same, but the big difference now. Now copper prices in 7000 dollars, while aluminum prices rose little or no down, may become the next largest increase in the variety; As the largest consumer of aluminum, aluminum may become a net importer in 2009; efforts to increase energy conservation and strict implementation of the industry access policy, is conducive to effectively suppress the increase in supply of aluminum to improve industry supply and demand; of aluminum with an important light, high strength, long service life, recycling, etc., decided to take a leading role in environment protection and energy saving, the decision of the increasingly widespread use of aluminum (such as automotive aluminum, aluminum train body etc.), aluminum copper price advantage to the growing substitution effect (such as air conditioning use aluminum instead of brass), etc., in particular, the strong aluminum demand in China far more than expected. focuses on the company Chalco (40.32,1.09 , 2.78%, the stock bar) and related aluminum shares (33.44,3.04,10.00%,UGG boots, the stock it).
6. Banking mm high-growth story to continue to perform banking
more we know, the 2008 Banking Department will inevitably be the impact of tight monetary policy, but to promote the rapid growth of the banking performance of the motive remains, about 40% this year, and the high valuation levels, I feel optimistic about the banking industry is worth.
7. inflection point is approaching the power industry
mm industry rose last year, not the power industry, rose by 133%, 20% expected annual growth rate of 08, the third coal linkage may be implemented in the second half of 2008, of course, It depends on whether inflation will be effectively checked; environmental protection energy conservation, on the small end of the world, shutting down small thermal power units, will help reduce the supply pressure; power construction has passed its peak utilization hours will be picked up in the second half of 2008. < br> focus is: Huaneng Power International (15.76,0.15,0.96%, the stock it), GD (18.76, -0.09, -0.48%, the stock it), Yangtze Power (20.28,0.26,1.30%, the stock now) , Zhangze Power (13.21,0.02,0.15%, the stock it).
8. iron and steel industry valuations attractive
07 mm of steel rose 178%, is expected to grow 30% in 2008, the biggest attraction force is 33 times price-earnings ratio, 08 to 10 times the valuation attractive .08 change of government in early factors, and the Chinese government worried that the economic slowdown in the United States tightening too much on the context of the impact of economic slowdown in China, 08 China's fixed asset investment will not significantly slow down in November 2007 increased by 26.1%. On the one hand afraid of overheating, on the one hand afraid of cold, so the Government can regulate.
9. grain planting and aquaculture mm prices offers opportunities
2007 年 up 156% of the industry, 2008 is expected to grow by 15% or more margin. At present price-earnings ratio is too high, such as the Great Northern Wilderness (18.14,1.65,10.01%, the stock right) is nearly 50 times the estimated value is no longer attractive, good masters (16.85, -0.24, -1.40%, the stock it), Zhangzidao (94.15, -1.12, -1.18%, the stock right) has reached 60 times.
grain farming income uncertainty, as prices trend uncertainty, food trends and a strong regulatory climate and the Chinese government is closely related to .07 of rice in 1m11 month rose 5.1%, up 7.5% of wheat, corn rose 18%, food prices and foreign excess liquidity, the dollar depreciation, investment funds, speculation, etc., so this year, needs further attention.
focus on the following companies: Great Northern Wilderness, good masters, Zhangzidao, COFCO Tunhe (13.13, -0.19, -1.43% stock it).
10. mm-than-expected growth in the machinery industry
11. the coal industry still shining
mm Ugyen electricity industry up 10% this year, the coal industry with the capability, voice also improved . With the energy of the increasingly tense, the Chinese government's understanding and positioning of the coal industry has fundamentally changed, from a competitive industry in general repositioning of the energy security of China's economic security as well as the strategic industry. So I think the coal industry at least the next few years will continue to be of high economic growth of the industry and the role of the sex industry. At present the static price-earnings ratio of coal more than 50%, but in view of its strategic resources, good growth characteristics and expectations, the proposed recommendation.
12. Papermaking mm industry boom industry increased
13. commercial retail department store industry is a bright spot in mm, I am concerned about the long-term Brilliance shares (24.70,0.14,0.57%, the stock it).
14. mm consumer food and beverage industry to promote industry upgrading growth,UGG shoes, I feel much better body good, but I think that is too high, and to cautiously recommend it.
15. mm into the golden age of aviation industry, the impact of its great appreciation of the renminbi, but also increase too much, is also a cautious recommendation.
No comments:
Post a Comment